老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective

The paper examines the effect of population ageing on public education spending. On the one hand, ageing is expected to have a negative effect on education, as an increasing number of retirees results in ‘intergenerational conflict’ and, hence, the condemnation of education expenditure. On the other hand, ageing, in combination with pay-as-you-go pension systems, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to ‘reap’ the benefits (that is, higher income tax/contributions) of their greater future productivity. Empirical evidence derived from the application of a fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has a non-linear effect on education spending. This indicates a certain degree of intergenerational conflict. Nevertheless, we find that future population ageing, which reinforces the mechanism linking public education and pensions, reflects positively on education expenditure. Furthermore, by disaggregating total education expenditure by educational levels, we observe that this effect is led by levels of non-compulsory education, probably as a reflection of the direct connection to labor productivity.     

我国劳动力流动的动态和预期经济效应分析

劳动力流动是市场机制发挥配置资源作用的表现。从静态分析看,劳动力流动调剂了供需双方缺口,提高了整个社会福利水平。从动态角度看,我国的中心城市和经济先发展地区具有吸引资金、技术和知识资本的优越条件,决定着劳动力流动方向,而且因累积循环作用,引起回波效应大于扩散效     

高速移动数据传输新标准IEEE 802.20

介绍了未来高速移动通信新标准IEEE802．20的总体概况，具体分析了IEEE802．20的技术特性、系统参考结构以及系统的组成模型，并对IEEE802．20标准前景分析与展望进行了详细描述。     

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

人口老龄化背景下农村养老的困境及其路径选择——基于安徽省砀山县的实证分析

在中国农村人口老龄化程度快速发展背景下，中国农村养老面临的形势不容乐观。文章基于对安徽省砀山县农村养老状况的调查，在论述当前农村养老的基本现状以及存在的主要问题的基础上，提出了农村养老保障体系建设应遵循既要使农村社会的养老资源得到充分整合又要体现社会主义新农村建设的要求的基本思路。同时，积极推进农村养老保险制度创新、尽快编织农村最低生活保障“安全网”以及不断完善新型农村合作医疗制度是当前农村养老保障工作的重心。     

中国人口资源困境的认识论根源探析--新发展观视野中的"天人关系"

从我国当前人与自然之间关系紧张、对立和冲突的事实出发 ,从新发展观层面审视当代人与自然的关系 ,揭示了当代中国自然资源有限性与人类需求发展无限性矛盾的严重程度及其对当代中国社会发展的制约 ,提出化解天人矛盾的理论路径。     

机动平台识别器方位零值的几种标校方法

方位零值标校是识别器设邸统标校的一项重要内容。针对机动平台识别器设备进场安装，提出了几种标校方法，旨在解决机动平台识别器的方位零值标校问题。     

养老基金筹集模式的实证分析

当前的养老制度改革是关注的焦点。本文首先将从介绍现存的筹集模式入手,试图换个角度来思考在人口老龄化背景下的我国养老金基金制度,实证分析模式选择对于缴费率等的影响,并基于此,讨论未来改革的方向。     

"非典"与流动人口管理模式改革路径的选择

从人口迁移规律入手,分析了"非典"流行期间,北京流动人口管理中存在的种种问题,认为这是执行流动人口和户籍人口"分立并行"管理体制的结果;提出了以"居住地人口管理"模式取代"户籍属地管理"模式的改革设想.